With the XI Plan period in its last mile, the focus is now shifting to the
XII Plan period that begins for a five-year period from April 1, 2012.
When one looks back at how the power sector has done in the XI
Plan period, it is a mixed bag of achievements. In terms of relative
accomplishment, yes it compares very favourably with the ignominious X Plan.
In absolute terms though, the XI Plan will leave a legacy of unfinished targets
to its successor. There has been under-performance, of varying degrees, on all
counts—power generation, transmission, distribution, policy reforms, etc. If
there could be one redeeming note, it is the increased involvement of private
sector enterprise in building new power generation capacity—mainly thermal
energy but also renewable sources like wind and solar.
It is officially estimated that the power sector will attract investment of
13
trillion in the XII Plan period, at least 30 per cent more than the actual
performance in the XI Plan. The XII Plan will, for the first time, see
investments in the power generation side (around
6.5 trillion), matching
that of the T&D sector. This is by far the noblest of all intentions.
Creation of more generation capacity addresses the supply side in isolation.
It is only the first step toward building a healthy power supply chain. True
merit lies in being able to create robust T&D infrastructure that will ensure
that not only does sufficient power reach the consumer but technical &
commercial losses are minimum, or at least respectably low.
The true test in the XII Plan period will therefore be on state power utilities to
redouble their efforts on the T&D front. While Central transmission utility
Power Grid Corporation of India will ensure that the National Grid is in place,
enabling inter-regional transfer of around 37,500 mw by March 2012, state
utilities will have to create evacuation for intra-state movement of power.
The power ministry's directive asking states to formulate their T&D
infrastructure plans in advance—ahead of imminent generation capacity—
is a meaningful step. It is also worth noting that instances of private sector
participation in power transmission at the state level are slowly growing in
number. Uttar Pradesh recently handed two mega intra-state schemes to
the private sector. More such success stories will be needed to make sure
that the weakest states are inspired enough to emulate achievements of
their healthier counterparts.
While transmission and distribution are always spoken of together, they are
indeed two separate issues. Transmission is still more manageable but
distribution is the murkiest link in the power chain. Generating enough political
will for privatization of power distribution in urban centres, at least where ATC
losses are unacceptably high, is a big opportunity for state governments as
well as power utilities to think, plan and execute differently. Only then will final
results be any different from the plebeian achievements thus far.